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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-03-10T19:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-10T19:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19406/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2 and as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Associated with an eruption, dimming, and EUV wave SE of AR2962 (N12W12), best seen in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 2022-03-10T18:42Z. Associated with below-threshold increase in greater than 10 MeV proton flux at GOES-P beginning 2022-03-10T23:15Z and below-threshold increase in 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A IMPACT beginning 2022-03-11T01:00Z. | ARRIVAL NOTE UPDATE - from DONKI IPS entry (2022-03-13T06:35:00-IPS-001): Sudden jump in magnetic field amplitude reaching 20 nT as well as a jump in speed, density, and temperature. A subsequent rotation can be seen in the B-field components with a decrease in temperature indicating a flux rope passage. Bz mostly north during the flux rope passage starting around 2022-03-13T22:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-13T10:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-13T12:36Z
Prediction Method: SPM
Prediction Method Note:

SPM Model Input Parameters:
Date-time:   2022-03-10 19:23:00
Initial Shock Speed:  677 km/s
Background Solar Wind Speed: 400 km/s
Duration Time: 5 hrs

Output Results: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-03-13 12:35:30

Lead Time: 8.27 hour(s)
Difference: -2.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2022-03-13T01:55Z

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